For the rest of the world, looking at where most smartphones are sold, the CDMA version can only help in some major Asian markets. Europe, Middle East, Australia and Africa are not CDMA and Latin America is way too small as a smartphone market to really matter in the big picture.
But in Asia the CDMA carriers are mostly the small ones in their home markets, always in countries where the iPhone GSM version has already been launched.
If the iPhone is not selling well on several GSM networks after several years of sales in India for example, then a new CDMA version in 2011 will not move that needle at all in that market, for example. Same for Indonesia, Taiwan etc.
Some markets may see a jump (China, South Korea, and Japan) but in these cases, the exclusive contract situation is likely to be similar to what Verizon faced in the USA against AT&T. So for the full year 2011, I am tentatively modeling in very round numbers that Apple will sell 70 million iPhones (plus minus 5 million) and would have roughly speaking 15 percent market share of smartphones and 4 percent of all mobile phones, very similar to their market share for 2010, i.e. their market share growth has indeed stalled from what it was still in 2009.
This does assume that the next iPhone 4G has to be a very successful new phone again in June of 2011, similar to how successful the iPhone 3GS was in 2009 and the iPhone 4 in 2010. At that level the iPhone would be the second-best-selling smartphone (Nokia will sell in the range of 140 million smartphones this year, totally out of reach for Apple) but I will be revising my preliminary model for 2011 sales later in February, when we have the final numbers for all manufacturers and the total industry (including Apple's Q4 numbers) for the full year 2010.
Does the CDMA version add iPhone sales, yes? Will it change the picture? Not much. What is the rough ratio of CDMA to GSM versions? About one in seven iPhones sold in 2011 will be a CDMA version. I will be monitoring the smartphones market on this blog in the continuing 'Bloodbath' series of smartphone market analysis blogs articles, and separately I will be doing a full analysis of Apple's iPhone performance for the full year 2010, when we get the final numbers from Apple soon.
For those who want more numbers and facts about the global mobile phones industry including smartphones, dumbphones, featurephones, installed bases, average sales prices, regional performances, operating systems, market shares and so forth I have released the TomiAhonen Phone Book 2010, a 180 page statistical review of the handset industry just two weeks ago, with all end-of-year 2010 numbers and facts, including over 90 tables and charts. The eBook is available for immediate download and only costs 9.99 Euros. To see more (this is the only place to buy it) - see TomiAhonen Phone Book 2010.
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