Even though Windows 7 isn’t out yet - the prognosis for successful commercial adoption aren't looking good, at least if you believe in research figures. Then again, if you do - re-read them and ask yourself who is crazy... according to Information Week, Windows 7 is in a lot of trouble.
The article quotes a survey made by Dimensional Research - taken by 1100 IT managers from the big cheese companies. 83% of questioned companies won’t upgrade their current OS to the new and shiny Win7 within 12 months of its release. When it comes to adoption pace, 25% of surveyed experts told that they will deploy Win7 sometime during 2011, with further 24% during 2012. 17% will wait at least three years for upgrade to new OS.
Then again, doom and gloom accent of the original article stops to hold water, because if the numbers are true - in 2013, Windows 7 would be deployed by 66% of all surveyed users. If that really happens, Microsoft can start to open champagne, given the pathetic state of current Windows Vista share in the corporate space. 66% adoption in three years after the launch is also higher percentage than Windows XP.
One of the given reasons for not upgrading immediately is world financial crisis/slow economy and fears of incompatibility various software with Win7. Microsoft will leave the option for downgrade from Win7 to XP till June 2010, but with Windows XP starting to operate in "extended support" mode, this just might be the incentive to change their mind and deploy sooner than expected. Our take would still be that Windows 7 features a certain killer-app that will drive sales in consumer segment: multi-touch. Commercial-wise, Windows 7 makes sense only in areas where touch-sensitivity brings potential productivity increases, such as audio, video and broadcast production.